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Asia Property Report - April 17 - News




Industry expert says China’s real estate bubbles have evened out

by Asia Pulse


The bubbles brewing in China´s housing market have slowly floated away over the past years, and now the market maintains sound growth, said Yang Hongxu, vice director of E-house China R&D Institute, in a recently published research report.

The conclusion was based on Yang´s estimated housing price-to-income ratio, a basic affordability measure for housing in a given area with a range of three-six recognized as reasonable.

Yang said that China saw the ratio in 2008 decline to the level of 2004 and forecast that it would further fall to 6.2 in 2009.

China has experienced rapid growth in the housing price-to-income ratio in recent years with the ratio fluctuating around 5.5-7.5 per cent from 1996 to 2008, higher than that of developed countries in the same period.

"But this number is closer to the world´s average 1998 level," said Yang, "even compared with developing countries, China´s housing price-to-income ratio is in a reasonable range." However, China displayed an uneven distribution of the ratio in different regions. First-tier cities such as Beijing,
Shanghai and Shenzhen accumulated some bubbles while regions in middle and western China rarely experienced any bubble due to low housing prices.

According to the report, Beijing posted a housing price-to-income ratio of 13.15 in 2008 and Shenzhen and Shanghai, 13.15 and 11.25, respectively. Meanwhile, the ratio in middle and western regions of China fell below seven, lower than the country´s average.

In 2008, housing prices in first-tier cities were stable amid increasing incomes, leading to a declined ratio. But Yang held that the housing price in these cities was still high and would see further drops in the future.

Statistics indicate that the prices of new and existing homes in 70 large and medium-sized Chinese cities fell 1.3 per cent year on year in March, the fourth monthly decline in a row.

Industry analysts said the price decline was a necessary adjustment that will help squeeze out bubbles in China´s real estate market.
 
 
 
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